The Archive — 2026
2026: the truce economy
The truce's first full year. Imports recovered steadily through the spring and summer to roughly $27 billion a month by August; a spring leaders' summit slipped; and in late September the truce was extended to January 10, 2027, with $60 billion of reciprocal tariff cuts and a new AI dialogue. The file now runs on a quarterly clock.
Spring Summit Slips
A planned early-2026 leaders' summit is delayed, casting a pall over the truce, as reporting highlights unresolved issues from soybeans to blacklists. Markets mark the calendar: the truce still expires November 10.
Truce Extended to January 2027
A late-September leaders' meeting extends the truce from November 10, 2026 to January 10, 2027 and goes further: reciprocal cuts covering $60 billion of trade — additional duties lowered to 30% on covered Chinese goods and 10% on covered U.S. goods — plus a new bilateral AI dialogue and activation of the Board of Trade mechanism.
Census Data: The Ledger Reopens
New trade data show the relationship stabilizing after the shock: 2026 monthly imports from China, depressed near $19-21 billion early in the year, recovered to roughly $27 billion by July and August — still far below the pre-war norm, but rising again.