The Archive — 2025
2025: 145%, then Busan
The most violent tariff year since the 1930s — and the strongest reversal. Additional duties peaked at 145% in April; by November, a Busan truce had cut the overall U.S. level to about 47%, suspended rare-earth controls and set the clock to November 2026. Imports fell 29.9% to $308.7 billion.
New Administration, New Tariff Wave
The second Trump administration takes office signalling tariffs as the central tool of China policy. Within weeks, a 10% "fentanyl" tariff under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act is imposed, citing the flow of precursor chemicals.
Fentanyl Tariff; China Answers
The IEEPA fentanyl tariff takes effect at 10%; Beijing answers with duties on coal and liquefied natural gas (15%) and crude oil, agricultural machinery and some vehicles (10%), plus an antitrust probe of a U.S. tech giant and export-licensing controls on several critical minerals.
Fentanyl Tariff Doubled to 20%
Citing insufficient progress on precursors, Washington doubles the IEEPA rate to 20%. China applies counter-tariffs of 10-15% on U.S. chicken, pork, soybeans, beef and dairy from March 10 — U.S. farm exports now sit squarely in the crossfire.
"Liberation Day" Reciprocal Tariffs
A universal tariff regime is announced: a 10% baseline for nearly all trading partners, with a 34% "reciprocal" rate for China — stacked on existing duties. The Chinese total on most goods heads toward levels unseen since the 1930s.
Escalation Peak: 125% vs 125%
After tit-for-tat rounds, U.S. additional duties on Chinese goods reach 145% and China's on U.S. goods 125%. Chinese port arrivals collapse; transshipment and front-running surge; air freight from Vietnam and Mexico booms.
Electronics Quietly Excluded
Smartphones, computers and other electronics are exempted from the reciprocal tariff — an acknowledgment that assembly elsewhere still runs on Chinese components. Roughly a quarter of bilateral trade is spared the worst of the peak.
De Minimis Ends for China
The $800 duty-free threshold is eliminated for Chinese parcels, upending the direct-from-factory model of Chinese e-commerce platforms and forcing customs systems to process hundreds of millions of additional low-value entries.
Geneva Joint Statement
Two days of talks in Switzerland produce the first de-escalation of the new era: U.S. additional duties drop from 145% to 30% and China's from 125% to 10%, for a 90-day window, while both sides keep the underlying orders on the shelf.
London Framework
A follow-up round in London locks in a fragile bargain: China accelerates rare-earth export licensing for U.S. buyers, and the U.S. pauses its newest chip-tool restrictions. Both sides claim the other moved first.
Truce Extended to November
Following a Stockholm round, the Geneva truce is extended by 90 days — to November 10, 2025. Tariffs hold steady while teams work through rare earths, agriculture and the fentanyl file.
Kuala Lumpur Working Talks
With the truce eleven days from expiry and escalations queued on both sides — new U.S. port fees, expanded blacklists, threatened 100% tariffs — working-level teams meet in Malaysia and buy time for a leaders' meeting.
The Busan Agreement
Meeting in South Korea, the two presidents reach the most substantial de-escalation of the second term: the fentanyl tariff is halved (cutting the overall U.S. duty level on Chinese goods from 57% to about 47%), China suspends its new rare-earth export controls for a year, resumes soybean purchases, and both sides stand down queued measures. A one-year truce runs to November 10, 2026.
Busan Terms Take Effect
The agreed reductions enter force and Beijing announces restrictions on fentanyl-precursor chemicals — the deliverable Washington had priced at ten points of tariff. The truce clock now runs toward November 2026.